Data is from SATP, as all of PIPS’ stuff is behind paywalls now. SATP data is sometimes inaccurate and their casualty counts are higher than PIPS. Terrorist fatalities have been excluded. Total means civilians + law enforcement and security personnel.
- Fatalities in terrorism remained on the same levels as 2012. There was only a 1.65% reduction in total fatalities.
- While this might suggest things were equally bad, data was skewed due to election violence. Slightly more people died in the first five months of 2013 than the next 7 months combined. Election violence was extremely high. January-May, casualties in 2013 were up 29.5% on an YoY basis. In the next seven months, casualties were down 21.1%. Graphs on pre-election terrorism are attached at the bottom.
- The first half of the year was incredibly bad. Sectarian violence in Quetta in the first two months was devastatingly high. There was a 36.5% decrease in fatalities in the second half, compared to the first. In the previous years, the difference has been around 6% or so.
- The second half of the year saw a 26.2% decrease in fatalities on an YoY basis. If the encouraging trend – a very disturbing word to use for such horrific stuff – continues, then that’s good news.
- Punjab continues to be the safest province. FATA continues to be the most affected.
- While it might seem that KPK suffers the most after FATA, Sindh actually has the same per capita terrorism fatality incidence rate as KPK.
- Punjab was the only province with two consecutive years of reduction in terrorism fatalities. After a 32% drop b/w 2011 and 2012, last year a further 19% reduction was seen.
- Sindh was the only province with two consecutive years of increase in terrorism fatalities. A 0.35% increase last year followed a 25.6% increase the previous year.
- KPK had the highest change in fatalities on an YoY basis. A 68% increase might be extremely alarming – and I’m not saying it isn’t – but it was because of election time violence and an unusually safe 2012, when sectarian terrorism started rearing it’s head again and the destinations for that were elsewhere.
- Casualties in FATA are down 39.5%, which is good news.
Based on last year’s numbers and UN population estimates, the following is per capita terrorist fatality incidence rate by province, in ascending order:
- Punjab- 1 in 1,422,535
- Sindh – 1 in 29.424
- KPK – 1 in 28,387
- Balochistan – 1 in 9,256
- FATA – 1 in 6,143
If you were living in Punjab, you were 230 times less likely to be a victim of terrorism than if you were living in FATA. And 50 times less likely than if you were in Sindh or KPK.
A detailed spreadsheet is attached for your perusal.